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A stochastic model for long term planning of the Norwegian natural gas infrastructure

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Wednesday 25 January 2012, 13:00
LT11, Management School

Professor Asgeir Tomasgard
NTNU/Norwegian University of Science & Technology

Abstract: I present a multistage stochastic model that evaluates investments in natural gas infrastructure, taking into account existing and planned design. The model has been developed together with Statoil and Gassco over the last 5 years. The uncertainty facing the decision makers include both upstream and downstream uncertainty, such as; reservoir volumes, the composition of the gas in new reservoirs, market demand and price levels.  In addition, it is important to analyze the robustness of the system to ensure a high level of security of supply. The model integrates analysis of long-term and short-term uncertainty.

I also discuss the value of using a similar type of model to study integration of renewable energy into he European energy system and give short overview of some of the related research activities in the Centre for Sustainable Energy Studies.

 

Bio: Asgeir Tomasgard is professor at the Norwegian University of Science and technology in the department of industrial economics and technology management. He graduated as a dr. ing in operations research from the same place in 1998. Tomasgard is director for  Centre for Sustainable Energy Studies. This is a cooperation between 8 national research partners, 20 partners form industry and 10 international partners.

Tomasgard has a part time position in SINTEF Industrial Management, where he has been employed since 1998.Tomasgard does research in the interface between economic modelling and operations research, often motivated by technology driven applications.

Tomasgard is a Franz Edelman Laureate (2008) as a finalist in the competition INFORMS Franz Edelman Award for an outstanding example of management science and operations research practice. “Optimizing the Offshore Pipeline system for Natural Gas in the North Sea”. He received the Harold W. Kuhn award for the paper “The Stochastic Single Resource Service-Provision Problem” in Naval research logistics in 2006. Tomagard has been visiting professor/scholar/PhD student at  University of Bergamo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam and Edinburgh Parallel Computing Centre (EPCC)

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