Management Science to host Marie Curie Fellow
Published 1 May 2009
Professor Robert Fildes and Juan Trapero (Department of Management Science) have secured £91,500 to fund Juan to work on a Marie Curie Fellowship based at Lancaster on a project entitled ’Supply Chain Demand Forecasting based on Unobserved Components models’.
In most industries supply chain management depends importantly on demand planning and forecasting. These predictions of future demand are provided by the Forecasting Support System (FSS) in order to make decisions regarding departments like Marketing, Finance, Inventory, Distribution, Logistic, Human Resources and Purchasing.
Nonetheless, there is current evidence that suggest a non-efficient use of these systems and so, high costs are associated to these prediction errors. The project will accomplish a thorough investigation as to the possible sources of this inefficient use of the FSS. It will focus on the Unobserved Components models developed in a State‐Space framework, where novel hybrid techniques which use discrete and continuous time domains will be assessed in combination with efficient recursive estimation techniques such as Kalman Filter and Fixed Interval Smoothing.
