Professor Robert Fildes
BA Oxon, MA, PhD California
Distinguished Professor
Department
Management Science
Professional Role
Joint Director of Centre for Forecasting. Director of IT in LUMS.
External Roles
Associate Editorship, International Journal of Forecasting. President (from 1999), International Institute of Forecasters, Past-President from 2004.
From 2010 Honaray Fellow, International Institute of Forecasters
Member EPSRC Peer Review College
Member EPSRC High End Computing Strategy Committee
Member, ESRC Post-Doctoral College
Current Teaching
Undergraduate: MSCI 311: Statistical modelling for decision making. Postgraduate: MSc OR Statistics. Post-Experience: Forecasting
Research Interests
Comparative performance of various methods of forecasting. Forecasting method selection and the evaluation of forecasting methods. Forecasting systems to support production and inventory. The effects of promotions on fast moving consumer goods. The organization of the forecasting function. Adoption and diffusion of new technology
Current Research
I am currently working in the area of climate forecasting. Recent work has shown the large simulation models used in developing the IPCC's view of global warming are seriously flawed.
Research Grants
The Design of Forecasting Support Systems, funded by the EPSRC:
Chapter (3)
Conference contribution (3)
Working paper (20)
Selected publications (25)
View all publications (65)
Publications
- Fildes R A and Kingsman B G, 2011, 'Incorporating demand uncertainty and forecasting in supply chain planning models', Journal of the Operational Research Society, vol 62, pp. 483-500.
View details - Fildes R A, Goodwin P, Lawrence M and Nikolopoulos K, 2009, 'Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning', International Journal of Forecasting, vol 25, pp. 3-23.
View details - Fildes R A, Crone S, Nikolopoulos K and Syntetos A, 2008, 'Forecasting and OR', Journal of the Operational Research Society, vol 59, pp. 1150-1172.
View details - Soopramanien D G R, Fildes R A and Robertson A, 2007, 'Consumer decision making, e-commerce and perceived risks', Applied Economics, vol 39, pp. 2159-2166.
View details - Soopramanien D G R, Fildes R A and Robertson A, 2007, 'Segmentation based analysis of internet service adoption of UK households', Technology in Society, vol 29, pp. 339-350.
View details - Fildes R A and Goodwin P, 2007, 'Good and bad judgment in forecasting: lessons from four companies', Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, vol 8, pp. 5-10.
View details - Fildes R A, Goodwin P and Lawrence M, 2006, 'The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness', Decision Support Systems, vol 42, no. 1, pp. 351-361.
View details - Fildes R A and Liao K P, 2005, 'The accuracy of a procedural approach to specifying feedforward neural networks for forecasting', Computers and Operations Research, vol 32, no. 8, pp. 2151-2169.
View details - Fildes R A and Allen P G, 2005, 'Levels, difference and ECMs: principles for improved econometric forecasting', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol 67, pp. 881-904.
View details - Fildes R A, Rose M B and Elsubbaugh S, 2004, 'Preparation for crisis management: a proposed model and empirical evidence', Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, vol 12, no. 3, pp. 112-127.
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