Professor Robert Fildes
Distinguished Professor
Management Science
The Management SchoolLancaster University
Bailrigg
Lancaster
LA1 4YX
Other affiliations: Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
Current Research
I am currently working in the area of climate forecasting. Recent work has shown the large simulation models used in developing the IPCC's view of global warming are seriously flawed.
Research Grants
The Design of Forecasting Support Systems, funded by the EPSRC:
Research Interests
Comparative performance of various methods of forecasting. Forecasting method selection and the evaluation of forecasting methods. Forecasting systems to support production and inventory. The effects of promotions on fast moving consumer goods. The organization of the forecasting function. Adoption and diffusion of new technology
Professional Role
Joint Director of Centre for Forecasting.
External Roles
Associate Editorship, International Journal of Forecasting. President (from 1999), International Institute of Forecasters, Past-President from 2004.
From 2010 Honaray Fellow, International Institute of Forecasters
Member EPSRC Peer Review College to 2009
Member EPSRC High End Computing Strategy Committee to 2010
Member, ESRC Post-Doctoral College to 2010
Current Teaching
Post-Experience: Forecasting
Qualifications
BA Oxon, MA, PhD California
Recent publications
- Principles of Business Forecasting
Ord, J K. & Fildes, R. 2013 Mason, Ohio : South-Western Cengage Learning. 528 p.
Book - Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions
Trapero Arenas, J., Pedregal, D J., Fildes, R. & Kourentzes, N. 04/2013 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 2, p. 234-243. 10 p.
Journal article - The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem: Working paper 2013:1
Huang, T., Fildes, R. & Soopramanien, D. 03/2013 Lancaster, UK : Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, (Department of Management Science, Lancaster University), 32 p.
Working paper - An evaluation of simple forecasting model selection rules
Fildes, R. & Petropoulos, F. 04/2013 Lancaster, UK : The Department of Management Science, 32 p.
Working paper - A joint Bayesian forecasting model of judgment and observed data: Working paper 2012: 4
Davydenko, A. & Fildes, R. 10/2012 Lancaster : Department of Management Science, Lancaster University
Working paper
