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Forecasting Publications

The Lancaster Centre for Forecasting publishes academic and corporate research in numerous ways. Below, please find recent publications since 2000. By clicking on each heading you can access all publications of this category.

Academic Publications

2010

  • S. Crone (2010) Neuronale Netze zur Prognose und Disposition im Handel, PhD thesis (in German), Gabler: Frankfurt a.M., 488 p., ISBN 978-3834911742
  • S. Crone, K. Nikolopoulos, M. Hibon (2010) New evidence on the accuracy of computational intelligence for monthly time series prediction - Results of the NN3 Forecasting Competition, International Journal of Forecasting, IJF (accepted for publication)
  • S. Crone, N. Kourentzes (2010) Naive Support Vector Regression and Multilayer Perceptron Benchmarks for the 2010 Neural Network Grand Competition (NNGC) on Time Series Prediction, Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, IJCNN’10, Barcelona, IEEE: New York, (in press)
  • D. Barrow, S. Crone, N. Kourentzes (2010) An Evaluation of Neural Network Ensembles and Model Selection for Time Series Prediction, Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, IJCNN’10, Barcelona, IEEE: New York, (in press)
  • N. Kourentzes, S. Crone (2010) Frequency independent automatic input variable selection for neural networks for forecasting, Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, IJCNN’10, Barcelona, IEEE: New York, (in press)
  • N. Kourentzes, S. Crone (2010) Inference from predictive Neural Networks for Time Series with Impulse Interventions, Proceedings of the 2010 International Conference on Data Mining, DMIN’10, Las Vegas, USA, CSREA , (in press) 

2009

  • S. Crone, N. Kourentzes (2009) Automatic specification of multilayer perceptrons for seasonal time series prediction, Neurocomputing (accepted for publication)
  • S. Crone (2009) Mining the Past to Forecast the Future: Comments, International Journal of Forecasting, IJF, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp.441-451
  • R. Stahlbock, S. Lessmann, S. Crone (2009) Data Mining and Information Systems – Quo Vadis?, Annals of Information Systems, Special issue on Data Mining, , Vol. 8, 2010, XIII, p.1-18
  • Fildes, R, Goodwin, P., Lawrence M. and Nikolopoulos, K.  (2009) Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning,  International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 3-23, with commentary.
  • Fuertes, A-M, Izzeldin, M.,  Kalotychou, E. (2009) On forecasting daily stock volatility: The role of intraday information and market conditions, International Journal of Forecasting, 25,  259–281.
  • Syntetos, A, Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J., Fildes, R. And Goodwin, P. (2009) The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts, International Journal of Production Economics, 118, 72–81
  • S. Crone, N. Kourentzes (2009) Forecasting Seasonal Time Series with Multilayer Perceptrons – an empirical Evaluation of Input Vector Specifications for deterministic Seasonality, Proceedings of the 2009 International Conference on Data Mining, DMIN’09, Las Vegas, USA, CSREA , pp. 232-238
  • S. Crone, N. Kourentzes (2009) Input-variable Specification for Neural Networks - an Analysis of Forecasting low and high Time Series Frequency, Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, IJCNN’09, Atlanta, USA, IEEE: New York, pp. 3221-3228 

2008

  • Fildes, R. And Madden G. (2008)  Aggregate selection, data characteristics and choice of optimal model, Telectronikk,  104(3/4),  255-167.
  • Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K. Crone, S. And Syntetors, A. (2008) Forecasting and OR, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 59, 1150-1172.

2007

  • Fildes, R. And Goodwin, P. (2007) Against your better judgment?  How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting, Interfaces, 37, 570-576.
  • Fildes, R., Madden G., and Tan, J. (2007) Optimal Forecasting Model Selection and Data  Characteristics,   Applied Financial Economics, 17, 1251–1264
  • Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D. And Fildes, R. (2007) Consumer Decision Making, E-commerce and Perceived Risks" with Didier Soopramanien and Alastair Robertson, Applied Economics, 39, 2159 – 2166.
  • Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D. And Fildes, R. (2007) Segmentation Based Analysis of Internet Service Adoption of UK Households,  Technology in Society, 29 339–350.  
  • Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D. And Fildes, R. (2007) Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services, Telecommunications Policy, 31:5,  265-275.
  • Goodwin, P., Fildes, R, Lawrence M. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2007) The process of using a Forecasting Support system, International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 391-404.
  • Fildes, R. And Goodwin, P. (2007) Against your better judgment?  How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting, Interfaces, 37, 570-576.
  • Fildes, R., Madden G., and Tan, J. (2007) Optimal Forecasting Model Selection and Data  Characteristics,   Applied Financial Economics, 17, 1251–1264.
  • Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D. And Fildes, R. (2007) Consumer Decision Making, E-commerce and Perceived Risks" with Didier Soopramanien and Alastair Robertson, Applied Economics, 39, 2159 – 2166.
  • Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D. And Fildes, R. (2007) Segmentation Based Analysis of Internet Service Adoption of UK Households,  Technology in Society, 29 339–350.  
  • Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D. And Fildes, R. (2007) Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services, Telecommunications Policy, 31:5,  265-275
  • Goodwin, P., Fildes, R, Lawrence M. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2007) The process of using a Forecasting Support system, International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 391-404.
  • Lee, W.Y., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K. and Lawrence, M. (2007) Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks, International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 377-390.
2006
  • Amstrong, J. S. and Fildes, R. (2006) Making progress in forecasting, International Journal Of Forecasting, 3, 22, S. 433-441.
  • Chiasson, M., Fildes, R. and Pidd, M. (2006) Intelligent thinking instead of critical realism? Journal Of The Operational Research Society, 11, 57, S. 1373-1375.
  • Fildes, R. (2006) The forecasting journals and their contribution to forecasting research: Citation analysis and expert opinion, International Journal Of Forecasting, 3, 22, S. 415-432.
  • Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. and Lawrence, M. (2006) The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness, Decision Support Systems, 1, 42, S. 351-361.
  • Fildes, R. and Nikolopoulos, K. (2006) Spyros Makridakis: An interview with the International Journal of Forecasting, International Journal Of Forecasting, 3, 22, S. 625-636.
  • S. Crone, S. Lessmann, R. Stahlbock (2006) The Impact of Preprocessing on Data Mining: An Evaluation of Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Networks, European Journal of Operations Research, Vol. 173, No.3, pp. 781-800
  • Stamatopoulos I, Teunter RH and Fildes RA, 2006, 'The impact of forecasting on the bullwhip effect', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Goodwin P, Fildes RA, Lawrence M and Nikolopoulos K, 2006, 'The process of using a forecasting support system', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Goodwin P, Lee WY, Fildes RA, Nikolopoulos K and Lawrence M, 2006, 'Understanding the use of forecasting software: an interpretive study in a supply-chain company', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Fildes RA, Goodwin P and Lawrence M, 2006, 'The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness', Decision Support Systems, vol 42(1), pp 351-361
  • Fildes RA, Goodwin P, Lawrence M and Nikolopoulos K, 2006, 'Producing more efficient demand forecasts', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Soopramanien DGR, Fildes RA and Robertson A, forthcoming, 'Consumer decision making, e-commerce and perceived risks', Applied Economics
    Robertson A, Soopramanien DGR and Fildes RA, forthcoming, 'A segmentation based analysis of internet service adoption of UK households', Technology in Society
  • Soopramanien DGR and Robertson A, forthcoming, 'Adoption and usage of online shopping: An empirical analysis of the characteristics of ‘‘buyers’’ ‘‘browsers’’ and ‘‘non-internet shoppers’’', Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services
  • de Kervenoael RF, Soopramanien DGR, Elms J and Hallsworth A, 2006, 'Exploring value through integrated service solutions: the case of e-grocery shopping', Managing Service Quality, vol 16(2), pp 185-202
  • Robertson A, Soopramanien DGR and Fildes RA, 2006, 'Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Minussi J, Soopramanien DGR and Worthington DJ, 2006, 'Statistical modelling of defaulting companies for the Basel Accord: A Brazilian case study', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Onggo BSS, Soopramanien DGR and Pidd M, 2006, 'A dynamic business model for component-based simulation software', Winter Simulation Conference (Monterey, California )
  • 08/2006 S. Crone, J. Guajardo, R. Weber (2006) A study on the ability of Support Vector Regression and Neural Networks to Forecast Basic Time Series Patterns, Artificial Intelligence In Theory And Practice, Proceedings of the IFIP World Congress in Computation, WCC'06, Santiago, Chile, Vol. 217, Springer: New York, pp.149-158
  • S. Crone, S. Lessmann, S. Pietsch (2006) Forecasting with Computational Intelligence - An Evaluation of Support Vector Regression and Artificial Neural Networks, Proceedings of the World Congress in Computational Intelligence, WCCI'06, Vancouver, Canada, IEEE: New York
  • S. Lessmann, S. Crone, R. Stahlbock, N. Zacher (2006) An Evaluation of Discrete Support Vector Machines for Cost-Sensitive Learning, Proceedings of the World Congress in Computational Intelligence, WCCI'06, Vancouver, Canada, IEEE: New York
  • S. Lessmann, R. Stahlbock, S. Crone (2006) Genetic Algorithms for Support Vector Machine Model Selection, Proceedings of the World Congress in Computational Intelligence, WCCI'06, Vancouver, Canada, IEEE: New York
  • S. Crone, J. Guajardo, R. Weber (2006) The Impact of Preprocessing on Support Vector Regression and Neural Networks in Time Series Prediction, Proceedings of the International Conference on Data Mining, DMIN'06, Las Vegas, USA, CSREA, pp.37-42
  • S. Crone, S. Lessmann, S. Pietsch (2006) Parameter Sensitivity of Support Vector Regression and Neural Networks for Forecasting, Proceedings of the International Conference on Data Mining, DMIN'06, Las Vegas, USA, CSREA, pp. 396-402
  • S. Crone, D. Preßmar (2006) An extended Evaluation Framework for Neural Network Publications in Sales Forecasting, Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence and Applications, AIA'06, Innsbruck, ACTA Press: Calgary, pp. 179-186
2005
  • Allen, P. G. and Fildes, R. (2005) Levels, differences and ECMs - Principles for improved econometric forecasting, Oxford Bulletin Of Economics And Statistics, 67, S. 881-904.
  • Fildes, R. (2005) The IJF, the institute and forecasting software, International Journal Of Forecasting, 2, 21, S. 199-200.
  • Liao, K. P. and Fildes, R. (2005) The accuracy of a procedural approach to specifying feedforward neural networks for forecasting, Computers & Operations Research, 8, 32, S. 2151-2169.
  • S. Crone (2005) Stepwise Selection of Artificial Neural Network Models for Time Series Prediction, Journal of Intelligent Systems, Vol. 14, No. 2-3, 2005, pp. 99-122
  • Fildes RA and Kingsman BG, 2005, 'Demand uncertainty and lot sizing in manufacturing systems: the effects of forecasting errors and mis-specification', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Fildes RA, Goodwin P, Lawrence M and Nikolopoulos K, 2005, 'On the accuracy of judgmental interventions on forecasting support systems', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Allen PG and Fildes RA, 2005, 'Levels, difference and ECMs: principles for improved econometric forecasting', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol 67, pp 881-904
  • Assimakopoulos V, Nikolopoulos K, Patelis A. and Petropoulos C, 2005, 'A technical analysis approach to tourism demand forecasting', Applied Economics Letters, vol 12(6), pp 327-333
  • Soopramanien DGR, Elms J and de Kervenoael RF, 2005, 'Internet vs store-based grocery shopping: why value added needs to be measured differently', 12th International Conference by the European Institute of Retailing and Services Studies on Recent Advances in Retailing and Services Science (Orlando, Florida)
  • Robertson A, Soopramanien DGR and Fildes RA, 2005, 'Measuring residential internet service adoption patterns', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • S. Crone, S. Lessmann, R. Stahlbock (2005) Utility Based Data Mining for Time Series Analysis - Cost sensitive learning for Neural Network Predictors, Proceedings of the International Workshop on Utility-based Data Mining, ACM Conference on Knowledge Discovery in Data, KDD'05, Chicago, pp. 59-68
  • R. Stahlbock, S. Crone (2005) Evolutionary Neural Classification for the Evaluation of Retail Stores and Decision Support, Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, IJCNN'05, Montreal, Canada, IEEE: New York, Vol. 3 , pp. 1499- 1504
  • S. Lessmann, R. Stahlbock, S. Crone (2005) Genetically constructed kernels for support vector machines, Proceedings of the Conference of the German Operations Research Association, GOR'2005, Bremen
  • S. Crone, D. Soopramanien (2005) Predicting Customer Online Shopping Adoption for Market Modelling using Artificial Neural Networks, in: H. Arabnia; R. Joshua; Y. Mun (eds.): Proceedings of the International Conference on Data Mining, DMIN'05, Las Vegas, CSREA Press: Athens, pp. 47- 58
  • S. Lessmann, R. Stahlbock, S. Crone (2005) Optimizing Hyperparameters of Support Vector Machines by Genetic Algorithms, in: H. Arabnia; R. Joshua; Y. Mun (eds.): Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, ICAI'05, Las Vegas, CSREA Press: Athens, Vol. 1, pp. 74-80
  • R. Stahlbock, S. Lessmann, S. Crone (2005) Evolutionary Neural Classification Approaches for Strategic and Operational Decision Support in Retail Store Planning in: H. Arabnia; R. Joshua; Y. Mun (eds.): Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, ICAI'05, Las Vegas, CSREA Press: Athens, Vol. I, pp. 60-66
2004
  • Fildes RA and Allen PG, 2004, 'Levels, differences and ECMs - principles for improved econometric forecasting', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Rose MB, Fildes RA and Elsubbaugh S, 2004, 'Preparation for crisis management: a proposed model and empirical evidence', Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, vol 12(3), pp 112-127
  • Liao KP and Fildes RA, 2004, 'The accuracy of a procedural approach to specifying feedforward neural networks for forecasting', Computers and Operations Research, vol 32(8), pp 2151-2169
  • Amstrong JS and Fildes RA, 2004, 'Forecasting and prediction', in The Social Science Encyclopedia, (eds) Kuper A, Routledge, London and New York, ISBN: 0-415-32096-8
  • Fildes RA, Goodwin P and Nikolopoulos K, 2004, 'Analysis of company sales data', International Symposium on Forecasting ISF (Sydney )
  • Fildes RA and Nikolopoulos K, 2004, 'Sales forecasting support systems (FSS) for the supply chain', Operational Research 46th Annual Conference (York )
  • Robertson A, Soopramanien DGR and Fildes RA, 2004, 'Understanding residential internet adoption patterns in the UK', Telektronikk, vol 100(4), pp 84-93
  • Assimakopoulos V, Metaxiotis K, Nikolopoulos K, Pantou G, Tavanidou E. and Maris K, 2004, 'D-TIFIS: a decision support system for options trading', Information Management and Computer Security, vol 12(1), pp 45-65
  • Assimakopoulos V, Nikolopoulos K, Pagourtzi E, Pantou G and Maris K, 2004, 'A study of financial volatility forecasting techniques in the FTSE/ASE 20 index', Applied Economics Letters, vol 11(7), pp 453-457
  • Robertson A, Soopramanien DGR and Fildes RA, 2004, 'Understanding residential internet adoption patterns in the UK', Telektronikk, vol 100(4), pp 84-93
  • S. Crone, H. Kausch, D. Preßmar (2004) Prediction of the CATS benchmark using a Business Forecasting Approach to Multilayer Perceptron Modelling, in: D. Wunsch et al. (eds.): Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, IJCNN'04, Budapest, Hungary, IEEE: New York, Vol. 4, pp. 2783-2788
  • S. Crone, S. Lessmann, R. Stahlbock (2004) Empirical Comparison and Evaluation of classifier Performance for data mining in Customer Relationship Management, in: D. Wunsch et al. (eds.): Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, IJCNN'04, Budapest, Hungary, IEEE: New York, Vol. 1, pp. 443-448
  • S. Crone (2004) A Business Forecasting Competition Approach to Modelling Artificial Neural Networks for Time Series Prediction, in: H. Arabnia; R. Joshua; Y.Mun (eds.): Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IC-AI'04, Las Vegas, CSREA Press: Athens, Vol.1, pp. 207-213
  • S. Crone, P. Grafeille (2004) An Evaluation Framework for Publications on Artificial Neural Networks in Sales Forecasting, in: H. Arabnia; R. Joshua; Y. Mun (eds.): Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IC-AI'04, Las Vegas, CSREA Press: Athens, Vol.1, pp. 221-227
2003
  • Fildes, R. (2003) New-product diffusion models, International Journal Of Forecasting, 2, 19, S. 327-328.
  • Fildes, R. (2003) Telecommunications demand forecasting - a review (vol 18, pg 489, 2002), International Journal Of Forecasting, 2, 19, S. 337-337.
  • Fildes, R., Bretschneider, S., Collopy, F., Lawrence, M., Stewart, D., Winklhofer, H., Mentzer, J. T. and Moon, M. A. (2003) Researching sales forecasting practice - Commentaries and authors' response on "conducting a sales forecasting audit" by M.A. Moon, J.T. Mentzer & C.D. Smith, International Journal Of Forecasting, 1, 19, S. 27-42.
  • Goodwin P, Lawrence M and Fildes RA, 2003, 'The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Fildes RA and Liao KP, 2003, 'The accuracy of a procedural approach to specifying feedforward neural networks for forecasting', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Assimakopoulos V, Lekatis N, Metaxiotis K and Nikolopoulos K, 2003, 'Integrating industrial maintenance strategy into ERP', Industrial Management and Data Systems, vol 103(3), pp 184-191
  • Assimakopoulos V, Metaxiotis K, Nikolopoulos K and Tavanidou E., 2003, 'eTIFIS: an innovative e-forecasting web application', Journal of Software Engineerng and Knowledge Engineering, vol 13(2), pp 215-236
  • Assimakopoulos V, Metaxiotis K, Nikolopoulos K and Patelis A., 2003, 'FORTV: decision support system for forecasting television viewership', Journal of Computer Information Systems, vol XXXX(4), pp 100-107
  • Assimakopoulos V, Metaxiotis K, Nikolopoulos K, Petropoulos C and Patelis A., 2003, 'SFTIS: a decision support system for tourism demand forecasting', Journal of Computer Information Systems, vol XXXX(1), pp 21-32
  • Nikolopoulos K and Assimakopoulos V, 2003, 'Theta intelligent forecasting information system', Industrial Management and Data Systems, vol 103(9), pp 711-726
  • Soopramanien DGR and Read RA, 2003, 'Bridging the digital divide: the growth implications of e-commerce for small and developing states', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • Soopramanien DGR and Robertson A, 2003, 'Consumer decision making, e-commerce and perceived risks', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper
  • S. Crone (2003) Prediction of White Noise Time Series using Artificial Neural Networks and Asymmetric Cost Functions, in: D. Wunsch, M. Hasselmo, K. Venayagamoorthy, D. Wang (eds.): Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, IJCNN'03, Portland, July 20-24 2003, IEEE: New York, Vol. 4, pp.2460-2465

2002

  • Agarwal, M., Balasubramaniam, S., Batsell, R., Blair, E., Bottomley, P., Chatfield, C., Donthu, N., Geurts, M., Islam, T., Krishnan, T., Kumar, P., Meade, N., Rao, V., Seetharaman, P. B., Van den Bulte, C., Whittaker, J. and Fildes, R. (2002) Telecommunications forecasting, International Journal Of Forecasting, 4, 18, S. 487-488.
  • Fildes RA and Ord JK (2002) 'Forecasting competitions - their role in improving forecasting practice and research', in A Companion to Economic Forecasting, (eds) Clements M and Hendry D, Blackwell, Oxford, pp 322-353, ISBN: 0-6312-1569-7
  • Fildes, R. and Stekler, H. (2002) Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting', Journal Of Macroeconomics, 4, 24, S. 503-505.
  • Fildes, R. and Stekler, H. (2002) The state of macroeconomic forecasting, Journal Of Macroeconomics, 4, 24, S. 435-468.
  • Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P. and Fildes, R. (2002) Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy, Omega-International Journal Of Management Science, 5, 30, S. 381-392.
  • Fildes, R. and Kumar, V. (2002) Telecommunications demand forecasting - a review, International Journal Of Forecasting, 4, 18, S. 489-522.
  • Fildes, R. (2002) Forecasting the Internet, International Journal Of Forecasting, 4, 18, S. 697-698.
  • Fildes, R. (2002) The future of the telecommunications industry: Forecasting and demand analysis, International Journal Of Forecasting, 4, 18, S. 697-698.
  • Goodwin P, Lawrence M and Fildes RA, 2002, 'Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy', OMEGA the International Journal of Management Science, vol 30, pp 381-392
  • Fildes RA (2002) 'Telecommunications demand - a review', International Journal of Forecasting, vol 18, pp 489-522
  • Fildes RA and Stekler H (2002) 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting', Journal of Macroeconomics, vol 24, pp 435-468
  • S. Crone (2002) Artificial Neural Networks for Time Series Prediction - a novel Approach to Inventory Management using Asymmetric Cost Functions, in: H. Arabnia; R. Joshua; Y. Mun (eds.): Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IC-AI'03, Las Vegas, June 23-26 2003, CSREA Press: Athens, Vol 1, pp. 193-199
  • S. Crone (2002) Training Artificial Neural Networks using Asymmetric Cost Functions, in: L. Wang; J.C. Rajapakse, K. Fukushima, S.-Y. Lee, X. Yao (eds.): Computational Intelligence for the E-Age, Proceedings of the International Conference on Neural Information Processing, ICONIP'02 2002, Singapore, IEEE: New York, Vol.5, pp.2374-2380

2001

  • Fildes RA and Allen PG (2001) 'Econometric forecasting: strategies and techniques', in Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, (eds) Scott Armstrong J, Springer, Berlin, pp 303-362, ISBN: 0-7923-7930-6
  • Fildes RA (2001) 'Beyond forecasting competitions', International Journal of Forecasting, vol 17(4), pp 556-560
  • Johnes G and Soopramanien DGR, 2001, 'A new look at gender effects in participation and occupation choice', Labour: Review of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations, vol 15(3), pp 415-443
  • Fildes, R. (2001) Beyond forecasting competitions, International Journal Of Forecasting, 4, 17, S. 556-560.
  • Fildes, R. (2001) The forecast report: A comparative survey of commercial forecasting systems, International Journal Of Forecasting, 1, 17, S. 129-130.
  • Fildes, R. and Ranyard, J. (2000) Internal OR consulting: Effective practice in a changing environment, Interfaces, 5, 30, S. 34-50.
  • Fildes, R. and Ventura, R. (2000) Marketing engineering: Computer-assisted marketing analysis and planning, Journal Of The Operational Research Society, 7, 51, S. 891-892.
  • Fildes, R. (2000) A commentary on 'Blackett: Operational research', Journal Of The Operational Research Society, 1, 51, S. 3-3.
  • Fildes, R. (2000) The fortune sellers: The big business of buying and selling predictions, International Journal Of Forecasting, 1, 16, S. 132-133.
  • Assimakopoulos V and Nikolopoulos K (2000) 'The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting', International Journal of Forecasting, vol 16(4), pp 521-530
  • Soopramanien DGR and Johnes G (2000) 'A new look at gender effects in participation and occupation choice', Lancaster University Management School Working Paper

Conference Presentations

  • PDF file icon  S.Crone (2006) IBF Statistical Forecasting Workshop, IBF International Conference on Supply Chain Forecasting, Amsterdam, November 2006  
  • PDF file icon  S. Crone (2006) Conference Keynote Speech, Baltic Logistics Conference on Demand Planning, Pärnö, Estonia, November 2006
  • PDF file icon  S.Crone, R. Fildes (2006) APICS'06 Presentation "A Road Map for Supply Chain Forecasting using Promotions, Weather and Calendar Effects, APICS Annual 2006 Conference, Demand Planning Track Keynote, Orlando, Florida, November 2006

    Abstract: For many companies operating in an increasingly competitive environment, marketing actions such as promotions, and external events, such as weather and holidays are a major influence on the accuracy of corporate forecasts. If data have been kept on the major events that affect demand, statistical model-based approaches will provide the best approach. This presentation will examine a variety of approaches to the problem, based on company research and conclude with a discussion of possible software solutions.

Research Reports & White Papers

Corporate Research Reports
Newsletters of the Supply Chain Forecasting Network
  •  PDF file icon  Supply Chain Forecasting Newsletter Issue 3

Other Publications

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