Working Papers, Presentations and Press Releases
1.The Design of Forecasting Systems for Production and Operations
Abstract: Formal forecasting methods see their greatest area of application in systems to support production and operations. This paper examines the design of such systems, reporting on a questionnaire completed by software vendors. Areas of weakness are highlighted and those aspects of software design where there is the greatest opportunity for improvement identified, in particular improved selection of appropriate methods. The relationship with the design principles of effective decision support systems is also considered. The presentation concludes with a discussion on achievable improvements in accuracy and the value of improved forecasting summarising as to why companies and software suppliers do not achieve the impovements that both sides claim to want.
2. "The Design Features of Forecasting Support Systems and their Effectiveness",
with Paul Goodwin and Michael Lawrence, Decision Support Systems, 2005
(forthcoming)
3. "A procedural approach to specifying feedforward neural network architecture-an empirical evaluation of forecasting accuracy", with K-P Liao, Computers and Operations Research, 2005, 32, 2151-2169.
4. "Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy", with Michael Lawrence and Paul Goodwin, Omega, 30, 2002, 381-392.
5. "Telecommunications demand-a review", International Journal of Forecasting, 18 , 2002. 489-522.
6. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting" with discussion,with Herman Stekler, 24, ,J. Macroeconomics, 2002, 435-505.
7. "Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: Does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy?", Goodwin, P. and Fildes, R., (1999), Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 37-53.
8. "Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment", Goodwin, P., (2000), International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 16, 85-99.
9. "Correct or Combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods", Goodwin, P. (2000), International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.16, 261-275.
10. "Integrating management judgment with statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts", Goodwin, P. (2002), Omega, International Journal of Management Science, Vol. 30, 127-135.
11. "Providing support for decisions based on time series information under conditions of asymmetric loss." Goodwin. P. (2005), European Journal of Operational Research. Vol.163, 388-402.
Link to additional working papers
